In Yemen’s turbulent political landscape, the internationally recognized government faces escalating threats from the Houthis, who possess advanced ballistic missiles and sophisticated drone capabilities. Despite the clear and growing danger, the government lacks a coherent strategy to establish a robust deterrence framework. This absence of effective countermeasures leaves the government vulnerable, allowing the Houthis to leverage their technological advantage to dictate the terms of conflict escalation.

A Message in Missiles
On December 30, 2020, as the newly formed Yemeni cabinet landed in Aden, a missile strike rocked the airport. A UN investigation later confirmed that the missiles were launched from Houthi-held territory. The message was unmistakable — the group could strike at any time, even at the heart of political power. This early warning set a precedent for future escalations, underscoring the Houthis’ capacity to influence the conflict dynamics directly.

Economic Targets and Strategic Impact
Two years later, Houthi drones targeted oil export terminals in Hadramout and Shabwa, Yemen’s main economic lifelines. These were not symbolic attacks; they effectively halted oil exports and severely crippled government revenue. Beyond the immediate economic damage, these strikes delivered a psychological blow, signaling the Houthis’ intent and ability to impose costs on the government’s survival and governance.

Unused Tools of Deterrence
The Yemeni government, supported by the Arab Coalition, has developed its own arsenal of drones and surveillance technology. It also benefits from growing diplomatic backing and a network of allies with advanced military capabilities. Yet, these assets have largely remained unused, reflecting a broader strategic hesitation.

Military Deterrence: Potential Left Dormant
 

While the Houthis deploy Iranian-supplied drones such as Qasef and Samad, government forces possess a fleet of surveillance and limited-strike drones. Experts argue these capabilities could be better leveraged through:

Precision strikes on Houthi drone launch facilities in Saada and Hodeidah

Electronic warfare to jam and misguide enemy drone navigation systems

Enhanced joint air-defense coordination with Saudi and Emirati forces

As a former military advisor noted: “Deterrence doesn’t require outright superiority — it demands credible commitment. Currently, the government’s credibility is under serious question.”

Economic Warfare: An Unopened Front
The Houthis have exploited their control over Yemen’s central banking system in Sana’a to collect taxes and sustain illicit financial networks. Although the Yemeni Central Bank’s relocation to Aden marked progress, decisive economic actions remain lacking, such as:

Freezing accounts of banks aligned with Houthi authorities

Restricting foreign currency inflows into Houthi-held areas

Coordinating with international financial institutions to blacklist illicit networks

Meanwhile, the suspension of oil exports continues to starve the government of crucial revenue. Restoring these flows, ideally under international protection, is vital to economic resilience. Possible strategies include:

Securing ports with robust air and naval defenses

Diversifying export routes .

Offering oil at competitive rates, backed by sovereign risk insurance

The Western Role: A Strategic Investment
Beyond support from the Arab Coalition, Western powers—particularly the United States and key European nations—have the potential to decisively shift the balance. By providing the Yemeni government with modern air defense systems, advanced counter-drone technologies, and strategic training in deterrence, the West could bolster Yemen’s capacity to defend itself and stabilize the region.

Such support would also safeguard broader interests, including secure shipping lanes through the Red Sea, enhanced counterterrorism efforts, and limiting Iranian influence.

A Choice, Not a Coincidence
The Houthis have gained ground not due to superior strength but because of decisive action. In contrast, the Yemeni government remains caught between caution and inaction.

Unless it adopts a comprehensive approach to smart deterrence—integrating military capabilities, economic measures, and international partnerships—it risks marginalization in the very conflict it must lead.

Sources:

UN Report on Aden Airport Attack – Alhurra

Drone Strikes on Dhabba Port – Al-Mushahid

Shabwa Port Attacks – Al-Estiklal

Economic Impact Analysis – Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies